Oil prices have fallen for three consecutive trading days, and the safe-haven appeal has been significantly weakened. Gold prices once fell below 3,900 to a three-week low.

Basic news

On Wednesday (October 29, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$3,950 per ounce. Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as hopes of progress in trade negotiations weakened gold’s safe-haven appeal. At the same time, investors' attention turned to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week; U.S. crude oil traded around $60.24 per barrel, with oil prices falling more than 2% on Tuesday, as investors assessed the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia's two major oil xmh100.companies on global supply, as well as OPEC+'s possible plan to increase production in December.

Stock Market

US stocks rose across the board on Tuesday, with the three major stock indexes collectively closing at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34% to 47706.37 points; the S&P 500 Index rose 0.23% to 6890.89 points; the Nasdaq Index rose 0.8% to 23827.49 points.

The core driving force for the market’s rise xmh100.comes from the blockbuster news in the field of artificial intelligence: Nvidia announced that it will build seven AI supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy and disclosed that its AI chip orders have reached US$500 billion. Affected by this, Nvidia's stock price rose by 5%, and its market value surged by more than 230 billion US dollars in a single day, just one step away from becoming the first xmh100.company with a market value of US$5 trillion.

The overall performance of the technology sector was strong. Microsoft rose 2% after the xmh100.company reached a new agreement with OpenAI to hold a 27% stake in the ChatGPT creator. Apple's intraday market capitalization exceeded the $4 trillion mark for the first time, although gains narrowed to 0.1% at the close. Markets are keeping a close eye on Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta this weekTechnology giants such as Platforms will announce their quarterly results, especially details of each xmh100.company’s investment in the field of artificial intelligence.

At the macro level, investors expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday. Due to the delay in the release of key economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown, the market turned to rely on private data to judge the economic situation. The latest ADP report showed that U.S. private employment maintained moderate growth, but news of layoffs from xmh100.companies such as Amazon dampened market optimism to a certain extent. At the same time, third-quarter earnings of S&P 500 xmh100.companies are expected to increase by 10.5% year-on-year, which is better than previously expected and provides fundamental support for the rise in the stock market.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Tuesday as hopes for progress in trade talks dented the safe-haven appeal of bullion, while investors' attention turned to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,964.35 an ounce, hitting its lowest level since October 6. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to close at $3,983.1 an ounce.

Gold, a traditional hedging tool and non-yielding asset in uncertain times, has risen more than 51% this year, supported by geopolitical and trade tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.

KitcoMetals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said: "Trade tensions have indeed eased, which is negative for safe-haven metals." Hopes of easing trade tensions inspired optimism in global markets, with Wall Street's major stock indexes opening at record highs on Tuesday.

Investors are also watching the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, the outlook for gold remains unclear, with some analysts expecting prices to continue higher and others remaining cautious.

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predicted at its annual meeting that gold prices will rise to $4,980 an ounce in the next 12 months, while Citigroup and Capital Economics both lowered their gold price forecasts on Monday.

Spot silver rose 0.7% to $47.21 an ounce, hitting its lowest level since September 26. Platinum was flat at $1,589.87 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.1% to $1,401.63 an ounce.

Oil Market

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Tuesday, falling for a third consecutive trading day, as investors assessed the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia's two major oil xmh100.companies on global supply, as well as OPEC+'s possible plan to increase production in December.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 1.9% to US$64.40 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures settled down 1.9% at $60.15 a barrel.

Both Brent and U.S. crude futures posted their biggest weekly gains since June last week as U.S. President Trump imposed sanctions on Russia over Ukraine for the first time in his second term, targeting Lukoil and Rosneft.manage.

The German Economy Minister said that the U.S. government has provided a written guarantee that Rosneft’s business in Germany will not be affected by sanctions because the relevant assets are no longer controlled by Russia. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFutures, said, "Trump's grant of exemptions to Germany gives the impression that these sanctions may have room for maneuver, thus easing the market's concerns that supply may be tightened significantly. We did see some risk-averse transactions today." Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Tuesday that the impact of sanctions on oil exporters will be limited because there is still idle production capacity around the world.

Sources said that since the sanctions were implemented, Indian refiners have not placed new orders for Russian crude oil and are still awaiting further guidance from the government and suppliers.

Four sources familiar with the negotiations said that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, OPEC+, are leaning towards another small increase in production in December. The organization had previously restricted production for several consecutive years to support the oil market, and began to gradually lift production cuts in April this year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said that OPEC+'s increase in production may help offset the reduction in Russian crude oil supply caused by U.S. sanctions.

Foreign Markets

The yen rebounded from seven days of losses against the dollar on Tuesday after xmh100.comments from Japan's Finance Minister and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent eased some concerns about Japan adopting more expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.

Japan’s Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Minoru Shirouchi said that Japan can improve its long-term growth potential by stimulating demand and maintaining a tight labor market, while paying attention to the need for fiscal discipline. Jonuchi Minoru also said that the government is paying close attention to the impact of currency trends on the Japanese economy.

James Lord, head of foreign exchange and emerging market strategy at Morgan Stanley, said: "This helps improve sentiment in the Japanese government bond market and the yen. I think foreign investors, especially, believe that the Sanae government may be more stimulating in terms of fiscal policy. Today's xmh100.comments tend to go in the other direction. On the one hand, there may not be as much fiscal stimulus; on the other hand, the government is sensitive to the movement of the yen. "

Bessent emphasized the important role of "setting a sound monetary policy," which further supported the yen.

Kamal Sharma, senior foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America, said: "Bessent made it clear that he prefers to use conventional policy tools such as interest rate hikes instead of foreign exchange intervention, which caused the dollar/yen to fall."

This was a xmh100.comment made during a meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki, and is the latest attack on the Bank of Japan's slow pace of interest rate hikes. "This is being interpreted by the market as potentially encouraging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates," said Morgan Stanley's Lord. The Bank of Japan is expected to end a two-year policy period on Thursday.Interest rates will be kept steady at the next meeting, but the focus will be on whether the Bank of Japan will provide clues on the timing of the next rate hike. The yen was last up 0.44% at 152.18 against the dollar.

The European Central Bank is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, while the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar fluctuated sharply against the euro after the release of a number of U.S. economic data. The dollar gained after preliminary estimates of the weekly ADP national employment report showed that U.S. private xmh100.companies added an average of 14,250 jobs in the four weeks to October 11.

However, the dollar later turned lower as World Enterprise Research said that U.S. consumer confidence weakened in October as households worried about whether there would be job opportunities in the next six months and as prices continued to rise due to import tariffs.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.08% in late trading to 98.69; the euro rose 0.14% to $1.1659. The euro against the pound also hit its highest level since May 2023, while the pound against the dollar fell to its lowest since August 1.

The UK budget watchdog is expected to cut a key productivity forecast by 0.3 percentage points, which could result in a 20 billion pound (approximately $26.8 billion) hit to public finances.

The Bank of Canada is also widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but Morgan Stanley holds a non-consensus view that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged. "We think they are likely to skip a rate cut this time, mainly due to better-than-expected data. Therefore, we are bearish on USD/CAD." The Canadian dollar rose 0.34% against the U.S. dollar to trade at 1.39 Canadian dollars.

As trade tensions eased, the Australian dollar, usually regarded as a proxy for risk appetite, rose 0.46% against the US dollar to $0.6586, the highest since October 9.

International News

U.S. Senate Minority Leader: The government "shutdown" may last until November

On October 28, local time, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said that the U.S. federal government "shutdown" may last until November, when millions of people will face high medical insurance costs caused by the expiration of tax credits under the Affordable Care Act. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have been furloughed, others are working without pay, and federal food aid is ending.

Global foreign exchange markets are ready for "Super Central Bank Week" to hit

This week, global financial markets are ushering in "Super Central Bank Week". Among them, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decisions on October 30, Beijing time. The market currently generally expects that the three major central banks will take different paths: the Federal Reserve will most likely continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points; the European and Japanese central banks will maintain existing interest rates unchanged. This difference in monetary policy has also become a key factor affecting the direction of the global foreign exchange market.

The U.S. government continues to halt large-scale layoffs during the "shutdown"

On October 28, local time, the United StatesA federal judge further blocked the Trump administration's plan to lay off thousands of federal employees during the nearly month-long partial government shutdown. During a hearing in San Francisco, U.S. District Judge Susan Ilston extended an earlier interim ruling that barred nearly 40 federal agencies from implementing layoffs pending the outcome of a legal action brought by unions representing federal employees. Previously, on October 15, a federal judge in San Francisco ordered that the Trump administration must stop layoffs during the government shutdown.

The government’s “shutdown” resulted in the suspension of food assistance, and many U.S. states filed a lawsuit

On October 28, a coalition of states led by the Democratic Party in the United States filed a lawsuit, requesting to prevent the Trump administration from suspending food assistance benefits from November 1 during the ongoing U.S. government “shutdown”. It is reported that attorneys general and governors from 25 states and the District of Columbia filed a lawsuit in Boston federal court after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it would not use $6 billion in emergency funds to pay Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (also known as food stamps) benefits. It is understood that this benefit provides food assistance to more than 41 million low-income Americans.

U.S. House Speaker Johnson poured cold water on Trump's remarks about running for office in 2028

House Speaker Mike Johnson poured cold water on Trump's remarks about seeking a third presidential term, saying that the U.S. Constitution's presidential term limits will prevent him from running again. "I don't see where that path is," the House Republican leader said. "I think the president himself knows that, and he and I have discussed the limitations in the Constitution." Although the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution explicitly prohibits anyone from serving more than two terms as president, Trump has repeatedly hinted that he may seek a third term. Johnson said he “can’t see” a chance of passing a new amendment to repeal the restriction, arguing it could take “ten years” for a constitutional amendment to gain support from a two-thirds majority in the House and Senate and ratification by three-quarters of states.

Gaza Strip Media Office: The Israeli army has violated the agreement about 125 times since the ceasefire

The Gaza Strip Media Office stated on the 28th local time that since the Gaza ceasefire agreement came into effect, Israel has violated the agreement about 125 times, resulting in at least 94 deaths and 344 injuries. These violations include: shooting, air strikes or fire attacks targeting civilians, crossing the "yellow line" into residential areas, blasting civilian buildings, and arrests of civilians in different areas. The statement called on the United States, the agreement countries, and the mediators to fulfill their responsibilities, put pressure on Israel, and urge it to stop violating the agreement. The statement also called for expediting the opening of border crossings, resuming the entry of humanitarian aid trucks, allowing the entry of medicines and medical supplies, reopening the Rafah port to transfer the wounded out of the country for treatment, and transporting temporary resettlement supplies to Gaza for the winter.

Apple enters the $4 trillion market value club

On Tuesday, Apple’s market value exceeded $4 trillion for the first time, becoming the third xmh100.company to reach this level.Milestone for the big tech xmh100.company as strong demand for its latest iPhone eased concerns about its slow progress in the race for artificial intelligence. Since the release of the new phone on September 9, Apple’s stock price has risen by about 13%, achieving a positive turn for the first time this year. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management, said: "The iPhone contributes more than half of Apple's profits and revenue. The more phones sold, the more users can enter its ecosystem." In addition, OpenAI said it has xmh100.completed its long-awaited restructuring, pushing the market value of its largest external shareholder Microsoft (MSFT.O) back to $4 trillion. The xmh100.company's market value once reached this milestone in late July.

Britain's political landscape is fragmented, Labor's support falls to record low in opinion polls

A YouGov poll shows that Keir Starmer's Labor Party has fallen to its lowest support on record, underscoring the growing threat the ruling camp faces on the left from the rising Green Party. According to the poll released on Tuesday, only 17% of Britons said they would vote Labor if a general election were held tomorrow. The right-wing Reform Party led by Nigel Farage leads with 27%. At the same time, the Green Party recorded 16% support, the highest level in history. The Conservatives are the same as Labour, at 17%, and the Liberal Democrats at 15%. Five parties have approval ratings of at least 15%, highlighting Britain's increasingly fragmented political landscape. Although Starmer does not have to call a new general election before mid-2029, the poll clearly shows that Labor is under attack from all sides, and the upcoming round of local elections in May is said by some in the ruling party as a matter of life or death for Starmer's leadership.

Domestic News

When He Lifeng met with members of the International Advisory xmh100.committee of the State Administration of Financial Supervision, he pointed out that China will continue to expand high-level financial opening up

He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central xmh100.committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on the evening of the 28th When meeting with members of the International Advisory xmh100.committee of the State Administration of Financial Supervision, he introduced the economic and trade situation between China and the United States upon inquiry, and stated that China is fully implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central xmh100.committee, following the recommendations and deployment of the "15th Five-Year Plan", unswervingly expanding high-level opening up of the financial sector, and accelerating the construction of a modern financial power. We welcome more foreign financial institutions and long-term capital to invest in China and deepen cooperation with China. Members of the International Advisory xmh100.committee of the State Administration of Financial Supervision said that they are optimistic about China's economic and financial development prospects and are willing to continue to delve into the Chinese market and continue to expand investment cooperation with China.

The above content is all about "[XM official website]: Oil prices fell for three consecutive trading days, the appeal of safe havens was significantly weakened, and the price of gold once fell below 3900 to a three-week low". It was carefully xmh100.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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