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The dollar loses its “safe house”! With the yen’s verbal intervention and trade easing, how far can the euro go?

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The US dollar has lost its "safe house"! Japanese yen verbal intervention + trade easing, how far can the euro take advantage of the surge?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

During the European session on Tuesday (October 28), the euro against the U.S. dollar continued to rebound, trading around 1.1650. It has rebounded significantly from last week's low of 1.1580, and is currently rising for the fifth consecutive trading day. In the past few days, European and American macroeconomic expectations, central bank policy differences, the retreat of the safe-haven US dollar, and the marginal easing of external political noise have jointly pushed the exchange rate to strengthen and continue to approach the key resistance area above.

Fundamentals: The U.S. dollar’s safe-haven premium is retreating, and the euro is taking a breather

The current core support for the euro’s strength against the U.S. dollar is not how impressive the data on the euro itself is, but that the U.S. dollar has temporarily lost its “safe harbor” premium in the dominant macro narrative. First, the tone of friction among large external economies has eased, and it has been emphasized that resource and supply chain cooperation with major partners is being promoted. The United States has signed a framework agreement on the supply of key minerals and rare earths with Japan to consolidate the stable supply of upstream strategic materials. This statement was interpreted by the market as a decrease in tension in the external environment. After risk appetite recovered, demand for traditional safe-haven currencies - including the U.S. dollar itself - was suppressed, indirectly pushing up the euro against the dollar.

The second level of push xmh100.comes from interest rate pricing. Last week's U.S. inflation data was weaker than expected. The market has basically locked in the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points again on Wednesday, and has already bet in advance that there is still room for one more interest rate cut this year. The derivatives market currently implies a high probability of falling to 4% in October, and a high probability of further falling to 3.75% in December, and is even beginning to digest another easing in the first quarter of next year. marketThe logic is straightforward: if the Fed continues to move in the direction of easing, U.S. short-term yields will continue to fall, the U.S. dollar's interest rate advantage will be eroded, and the upward elasticity of the euro against the U.S. dollar will be released.

At the same time, although the Federal Reserve is faced with a package of data on employment, consumption, housing prices, confidence, etc., the US government's shutdown-style administrative interference has reduced the availability of official high-frequency macro data. Objectively, it is also forcing the Federal Reserve to rely more on "risk management" ideas rather than "data dependence." The market interprets this as: Even if there is no systemic recession in the economy yet, the Federal Reserve is inclined to proactively reduce financing costs to hedge against future uncertainties. Once this expectation is confirmed, it will be difficult for the US dollar to make a strong recovery in the short term.

Third, the news from the euro zone itself is not all positive. Germany's GfK consumer confidence index continued to weaken in October, falling further from -22.3 to -24.1, worse than expected -22.0, hitting a nearly seven-month low, indicating that the end demand side is still under pressure and the consumption willingness of the household sector has not really recovered. This should have suppressed the euro, but the impact was offset by two forces: First, the European Central Bank's recent stance has been relatively restrained. Although the European Central Bank's consumer inflation expectations survey showed that inflation expectations for the next 12 months dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%, the three-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively, indicating that the medium- and long-term inflation anchor has gradually stabilized, but there has not been a "rapid collapse". This makes the market believe that the European Central Bank is likely to suspend further interest rate cuts in the short term, and will not rush to increase easing at least in the first part of 2025. Second, the European Central Bank's bank loan survey showed that euro zone banks experienced slight tightening of credit standards in the third quarter, which was not fully expected in previous surveys. Banks pointed to downside risks to the economic outlook, geopolitical uncertainty and trade-related jitters. This "selective lending" behavior essentially reinforces the European Central Bank's cautious attitude towards medium- and long-term inflation, rather than simply announcing xmh100.comprehensive stimulus.

Putting these together, the fundamentals of the Eurozone do not give a strong growth story, but the European Central Bank is not eager to take risk-style easing; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve is betting that it will continue to cut interest rates. Policy divergence and the cooling of the US dollar's safe haven have become the main fuel for the EURUSD's current rally.

Technical aspect: The 240-minute upward trend line is still playing a leading role

Judging from the 240-minute K-line chart, after the EURUSD stabilized near 1.1541, it experienced a rapid peak at 1.1727, and then retreated from the high, but after 1.1576 once again received buying support, forming a higher low; then the exchange rate rose steadily along an upward trend line since late October. The trend line currently roughly crosses the 1.1576 and 1.1620 lines, showing that the bull market is constantly moving up its defense line. The current exchange rate is already running above this rising trend line, indicating that bulls are still in control of the rhythm and have not yet been forced to enter panic stops.

From a structural point of view, the 1.1620 line is close toThe key support level in this period not only corresponds to the high point of the previous horizontal consolidation zone (static support), but also basically overlaps with the extension position of the upward trend line (dynamic support). If the market outlook retraces to this area and a stabilizing candle signal appears, such as a hammer line or a long lower shadow line, then this area will most likely be regarded by the market as a retest position for re-arrangement. Further below, 1.1576 and 1.1541 correspond to secondary and extreme support respectively. The former is the last obvious rising low, and the latter is the starting point of this round of rebound and belongs to the bottom line of bulls.

Looking upward, the short-term resistance first falls in the area of 1.1667, which is the local high left by the latest wave of surge and is also the neck level that the market is testing. If 1.1667 is effectively broken through and stands firm, the upper space will point to the previous high of 1.1727, and there may even be a chance to challenge the higher 1.1758 high on the left again. In other words, 1.1667 is a typical resistance line, which may be converted into a new support level after breaking through.

At the indicator level, the MACD indicator (26, 12, 9) shows that the MACD line has regained its position above the signal line, with DIFF about 0.0009 higher than DEA about 0.0005. The histogram is positive and is slightly amplifying, indicating that bulls have re-accumulated kinetic energy and there has not yet been an obvious top divergence. As long as MACD does not fall back quickly and fall back below the zero axis, the probability of trend continuation is still dominant. The relative strength index RSI (14) is currently rising around 60, and there is still room for the traditional overbought zone (70). This usually means that the bulls still have room to advance, but it also reminds that once the RSI approaches 70 but cannot simultaneously break through 1.1727, there may be a prototype of a "kinetic divergence" in which the price reaches a new high but the RSI is not too high, which will become the first yellow light signal for the bulls.

Overall, the structure on the 240-minute chart is a standard ascending channel: higher lows, testing stage highs, and oscillators that have not yet overheated. As long as the 1.1620-1.1650 area is not clearly penetrated, this upward trend line will still dominate the market, and the exchange rate does not have the conditions to reverse into a downward trend.

Market Sentiment Observation: Risk appetite has been restored, but the U.S. dollar has not fallen out of control

From an emotional perspective, the current situation is not a typical "full capitulation of the U.S. dollar" scenario, but more like a xmh100.compound market of "restoration of risk appetite + policy expectations to lower U.S. dollar interest rate differentials". Equity market sentiment is optimistic, mainly because external frictions have tended to ease, and senior officials have publicly stated that all parties are looking for a "sustainable framework" for key resources, supply chains and industrial cooperation, which has weakened market concerns about extreme confrontation situations. Falling risk premiums tend to mean that funds are more willing to flow into non-safe haven assets and high-beta currencies, naturally putting pressure on the U.S. dollar in the process.

At the same time, the market has returned its focus to central banks rather than geopolitical shocks. The Federal Reserve is still considered to be lowering policy interest rates, and the noise from the US fiscal and administrative levels makes "anti-risk" easing seem reasonable, and the market is accordingly suppressing the dollar. European Central Bank, because the medium- and long-term anchor of inflation is still hovering around the 2.2%-2.7% range, and there is no xmh100.complete collapse of deflation expectations, the market believes that the European Central Bank is likely to stay on hold in the short term, which makes the euro "relatively resistant".

Another thread worthy of attention xmh100.comes from the Japanese yen. Recently, Japanese fiscal and financial officials have publicly emphasized that they will "pay close attention" to changes in the yen, and their tone has been interpreted by the market as not ruling out taking measures to stabilize the exchange rate at any time. The Bank of Japan itself is under verbal pressure from fiscal authorities to keep its monetary policy "sound," which markets interpret as a sign that the possibility of another tightening remains on the table. The Japanese yen's verbal support made some bulls choose to close their long positions in the US dollar against the Japanese yen. As a result, the US dollar not only weakened in front of the euro, but also lacked upward momentum in front of the Japanese yen. In other words, the U.S. dollar has no independent safe haven to rely on.

There is another noise that cannot be ignored xmh100.coming from the political level of the Eurozone. The debate over fiscal deficit and wealth tax continues to heat up in France, with some political parties even mentioning that they would not rule out pushing for a new no-confidence motion if parliament does not adopt their tax increase proposals. This kind of political uncertainty is a ceiling-like suppression for the euro: it will not smash the market immediately, but will remind the market "don't be too greedy" every time it rises, thereby limiting the euro's mindless unilateral rush to the top. This sentiment can be felt near 1.1667: the bulls are still pushing, but are obviously more cautious.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The US dollar has lost its "safe house"! The Japanese yen verbal intervention + trade easing, how far can the euro take advantage of the momentum to go soaring?" It is carefully xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The dollar loses its “safe house”! With the yen’s verbal intervention and trade easing, how far can the euro go?

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