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Non-farm market hikes, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has changed its face!

Wonderful Introduction:

If the sea loses the rolling waves, it will lose its majesty; if the desert loses the dancing of flying sand, it will lose its magnificence; if life loses its real journey, it will lose its meaning.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Non-agricultural listings are out, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will change!". Hope it will be helpful to you! Original content is as follows:

On July 4, spot gold traded around $3,330 per ounce, and gold prices fell 1% on Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data consolidated expectations that the Fed would unlikely cut interest rates early as previously expected, weakening the attractiveness of gold; oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, with investors worried that U.S. tariffs could slow energy demand and major crude oil producers expected to increase supply. Due to the US Independence Day holiday, market trading is light.

The U.S. Department of Labor released data on Thursday showed that non-farm jobs increased by 147,000 in June. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously predicted an increase of 110,000. Since July 4 is the U.S. Independence Day holiday, the report was released one day in advance. "In such a strong labor market, it will be very difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates," said Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of MerkHardCurrencyFund in California. "Powell's argument that the Fed maintains a wait-and-see stance remains tenable."

The dollar index for a basket of currencies such as the yen and the euro rose 0.40% to 97.135, rising for two consecutive trading days, but is still close to multi-year lows.

After the data was released, the US dollar rose, while U.S. Treasury yields also rose. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which usually fluctuates in line with Fed rate expectations, rose 9.7 basis points to 3.789%. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 5.5 basis points to 4.348%.

Asian market

Japan household spending increased by 4.7% year-on-year in May, far higher than the 1.2% expectation, setting the fastest growth rate since August 2022. After seasonal adjustmentMonthly spending also soared by 4.6% month-on-month, far higher than the market expectation of 0.4%, the largest increase since March 2021. The Ministry of Home Affairs attributed the increase to strong demand for cars, dining out and summer-related appliances.

By category, transportation and xmh100.communication expenditure increased by 25.3% year-on-year, while entertainment and leisure expenditure increased by 11.1% year-on-year. Purchases of furniture and household appliances rose 9.3% year-on-year as families prepare for the hot summer. As price pressure eases and dining out increases, food spending, which accounts for nearly one-third of total consumption, increased by 1.0% year-on-year.

Officials stressed that the three-month moving average of household spending has been positive since December 2024, indicating that consumer demand is recovering for a lasting recovery.

European Market

Minutes of the ECB June meeting showed that "almost all member states" supported lowering deposit interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00%. Policymakers view the move as a safeguard to ensure that “temporary downgrades in overall inflation do not become long-term” and ensure that the 2% target remains unchanged by 2027. The rate cut is also defined as positioning interest rates in a "roughly neutral region" so that the European Central Bank can maneuver in either direction as needed.

While some officials initially favored keeping interest rates unchanged so that there is more time to assess the inflation outlook, they end up being consistent with the views of most people. However, one member disagreed. Most concluded that delaying interest rate cuts would increase the risk of “below the inflation targets for 2026 and 2027.”

Overall, the ECB stresses that sufficient flexibility is needed in the future. Given the possibility of increased global uncertainty and the possibility of rapid changes in both directions in inflation dynamics, the account emphasizes a “bilateral perspective” on inflation risks and intentional avoidance of forward-looking guidance.

The Eurozone Service Industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) finalized at 50.5 in June, up from 49.7 in May. The xmh100.comprehensive purchasing managers index (PMI) rose from 50.2 to 50.6. Although the eurozone resumed moderate expansion, major economies still performed unevenly. Germany hit a three-month high of 50.4, while France fell to 49.2. Ireland has performed the strongest despite a slowdown to a five-month low at 528. Spain (52.1) rose slightly, while Italy's readings fell to 51.1.

Cyrus dela Rubia of Hamburg xmh100.commercial Bank pointed out that since April, the service industry has "more or less stagnant". Still, the ongoing labor shortage has hampered the xmh100.company’s layoffs, which helps stabilize private consumption. But the full recovery still seems elusive, with structural weaknesses continuing to drag down growth momentum in most of the eurozone.

It is worth noting that rising prices for service input and output may be an unwelcome signal for the ECB. However, delaRubia stressed that wider deflationary forces, such as the strengthening of the euro and tariff-driven downside risks, could offset the rise in service sector inflation. While price pressures in the service industry are still under the radar, its importance is “somehow retreating behind the scenes.”

Swiss consumer prices unexpectedly rose slightly in June, with the overall CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, and the annual rate turned positive, 0.1% year-on-year, reversing the May-year-on-year level. The core CPI also strengthened from 0.5% year-on-year to 0.6%, indicating that potential inflation pressures remain sluggish but stable.

Domestic prices are the main driving factor, up 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year. Imported goods remained weak, flat on the previous month, and although it improved from -2.4% in May, it still fell -1.9% year-on-year.

The UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMIPMI) finalized at 52.8 in June, up from 50.9 in May, the fastest expansion since August 2024. The xmh100.comprehensive purchasing managers index (PMI) also rose to 52.0, the highest level since September. Data shows that the economy will experience a moderate but expanding recovery driven by improved domestic demand. TimMoore of S&P Global noted that consumer and business spending showed signs of turning around after a sluggish spring.

However, “reduced export sales” eased the rebound, with respondents saying the pressure from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. In addition, the xmh100.company is "unwilling to turn on the recruitment faucet", marking the ninth consecutive month of layoffs.

In terms of the Bank of England, the inflation of input costs has slowed significantly, which has helped alleviate the pressure on output prices, with output prices rising the lowest in more than three years. Today's report strengthens the reason the Bank of England cut interest rates again in August as price pressures ease and labor markets cool.

U.S. Market

The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded to the expansion zone in June, rising to 50.8 from 49.9 in May, slightly higher than expected 50.3. While the overall data marks a return to growth, it is still below the 12-month average of 52.4.

In some details, new orders jumped from 46.4 to 51.3, indicating a recovery in demand, while business activity improved from 50.0 to a solid 54.2. However, other details of the report are more xmh100.complicated. The employment sector fell from 50.7 to 47.2, indicating a contraction in the service industry. The price paid remains at a high of 67.5, above 60 for the seventh consecutive month.

According to ISM data, the PMI level in June means annualized GDP growth of about 0.7%.

The number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 147k in June, higher than the expected 110k, basically consistent with the 12-month average of 146k. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, partly due to a slight decline in participation rates to62.3%. Overall, the data showed that the labor market remained stable, with no obvious signs of deterioration forcing the Fed to take action in July.

However, wage growth continues to cool down. The average hourly wage increased by only 0.2% month-on-month and only 3.7% year-on-year, both lower than expected 0.3% and 3.9%, further slowing xmh100.compared to previous readings. A xmh100.combination of solid hiring and easing wage pressures may support the justification for a rate cut later this year, but is unlikely to change the Fed's position in the near term.

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