The trends of the treasury bond yields in many countries are differentiated, and the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 15

Global Market Review

1. European and American market conditions

The three major futures indexes rose and fell in unison, with Dow futures rising 0.65%, S&P 500 futures rising 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures falling 0.18%. The German DAX index rose 0.09%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.11%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.58%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.27%.

2. Market news interpretation

The trend of the Treasury bond yields in multiple countries highlights global economic differences

⑴ As of now, the yield on the 2-year benchmark Treasury bonds of the United States is 3.740%, higher than most developed economies, with the interest rate spread with Japan being as high as 291.5 basis points. ⑵ The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.297%, the spread with the 10-year U.K. Treasury bond is 37.0 basis points, and the spread with Germany is 154.4 basis points. ⑶ Inside Europe, the yield on Germany's 2-year treasury bonds is 1.971%, the interest rate spread with the UK's treasury bonds is 195.6 basis points, and the interest rate spread with France is 24.5 basis points. ⑷ Germany's 10-year Treasury bond yield was 2.753%, with the interest rate spread with the UK reaching 191.4 basis points and the interest rate spread with the US reaching 154.4 basis points. ⑸ Data shows that among major global economies, there are significant differences in treasury bond yields, reflecting the differences in policy positions, inflation expectations and economic prospects of central banks in various countries.

The decline in overseas official U.S. bond holdings may indicate a change in market sentimentChange

⑴ As of the week ending August 13, the custodial holdings of foreign officials and international institutions in the Federal Reserve fell by 0.7% to $3.193 trillion. ⑵ Among them, the value of U.S. Treasury bonds held in custody fell by 0.8% to $2.856 trillion, while holdings of institutional bonds/mortgage-backed securities (MBS) rose slightly by 0.2% to $255.9 billion. ⑶ Holdings of other securities rose slightly by 0.1% to US$80.5 billion. ⑷ xmh100.compared with the same period last year, foreign official and international institutions held circulating U.S. Treasury bonds, while institutional bonds/MBS holdings plummeted by 17.2%. ⑸ These data show that overseas officials have weakened demand for US Treasury bonds, which may reflect changes in global capital flows and market sentiment.

Japan GDP boosted the yen strongly, and the US dollar against the yen technology position is facing a test

⑴ As Japan's GDP grew by 1.0% in the second quarter, far exceeding the expected 0.4%, the yen was boosted, causing the US dollar to fall against the yen. ⑵Affected by this, Japan's Treasury bond yield rose to a new August high, while the US dollar and the yen are currently trading in the lower half of the range of 147.86 to 146.76. ⑶ Technically, the US dollar against the yen was blocked on the 21st moving average, and the cloud chart became thinner, and the bearish tendency was slightly superior, but the bullish candlestick chart formed on Thursday slowed down its downward momentum to 146 key support areas. ⑷ The strengthening of the yen was also supported by foreign investors' buying of Japanese stocks for the seventh consecutive week. ⑸ Some analysts pointed out that the xmh100.comments of US Treasury Department officials on the Bank of Japan's interest rate path and the impact of Trump's tariff remarks on trade growth will be the focus of market attention. ⑹If the US dollar can return above 148, its bearish tendency will be eliminated.

Multiple data are intertwined with the summit, and the US bond market is under pressure and fluctuation

⑴ On Friday, Beijing time, before the release of key data and the summit, the US Treasury market performed smoothly and the yield curve was slightly steep. ⑵ Thursday's strong July Producer Price Index (PPI) data extinguished market hopes for a sharp rate cut in September, impacting the U.S. bond market. ⑶Analysts believe that the impact of Trump's tariff remarks is emerging. In July, China's industrial output value increased by 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales increased by 3.7%, both lower than expected, showing its impact on Asian economies. ⑷ Despite the recent sharp jump in inflation in the PPI service industry, some analysts believe that the impact of tariffs may be lower than expected, as many xmh100.commodities enjoy duty-free treatment. ⑸ The market will closely monitor a series of data such as the upcoming July U.S. retail sales, import prices and New York State Manufacturing Index, in order to find new clues about the economic trend and the Fed's policy prospects. ⑹The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fluctuates in the range of 4.22% to 4.32%, and traders tend to steeper the range operation and betting curve.

Oasis concert unexpectedly pushes up inflation. The Bank of England may face new challenges.

⑴ Some analysts pointed out that the reunion tour of the British band Oasis may be for next week.The release of UK inflation data for July has had an impact, making its forecast even more xmh100.complicated. ⑵ Although the UK's National Bureau of Statistics will not include concert ticket prices in the inflation basket, it may indirectly push up inflation as the concert drives hotel prices. ⑶Deutsche Bank's hotel price tracking data showed that hotel prices rose by nearly 9% month-on-month, among which Oasis's concert in Manchester had a significant impact on local hotel prices. ⑷Morgan Stanley is relatively cautious, with data showing that hotel prices have increased by 1.5% monthly, but hotel prices are expected to rise sharply in August due to the dual influence of art festivals and concerts. ⑸ Currently, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley expect the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise year-on-year in July to 3.8% and 3.7% respectively, which are not good for the Bank of England.

Retail data is expected to indicate consumer resilience, and the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut expectations have increased

⑴ On Friday, Beijing time, the market generally predicted that the monthly retail sales rate in July of the United States will increase by 0.5%, basically the same as the 0.6% increase in June. ⑵ The data shows that U.S. consumer spending remains strong despite economic concerns, thanks to summer promotions and early purchases made by consumers to avoid future price increases. ⑶ The US dollar index has fallen about 2.3% since August, falling below the 98.00 mark, reflecting the increased market confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. ⑷ Core retail sales (excluding cars) are expected to grow by 0.3%, down from 0.5% in June, indicating a slowdown in consumption. ⑸ Analysts believe that if the July retail data is moderate as expected, it will provide support to the Federal Reserve, allowing it to relax monetary policy amid weakening labor market. ⑹While consumer spending remains resilient, there are signs that consumers are becoming more cautious amid concerns about price pressure caused by slowing job markets and tariffs.

Moldova's progress in accession to Europe surpasses Ukraine. The EU plans to open the gate in advance.

The EU is considering pushing the country's accession process forward a big step forward before Moldova holds parliamentary elections at the end of September, giving it a lead over Ukraine for the first time. Three diplomats and an EU official said European countries will vote to open the first "negotiation cluster" for Moldova after the EU ministers' meeting early next month - a key legal step on the way to join the EU, according to a program that EU officials are studying. The move will bring significant election support to Moldovan President Sandu, whose party has a pro-European stance as the core of her campaign. "We must find a way to start the first cluster," said EU Parliament Murraysan. "This will send a signal to Russia and weaken Russia's claim that there is no progress in the road to joining the alliance." However, this move may anger Ukraine. A Ukrainian diplomat said: "This is a danger of sending false signals to Ukrainians. As Alaska discusses future peace, we need to keep the prospect of EU membership as strong as possible."

Hot discussion data pushes up euro zone bond market yields, and the market is waiting for US consumers to perform

⑴ On Friday, Beijing time, euro zone bond yields generally rose as the market continued to digest Thursday's strong U.S. inflation data. ⑵ German 10-year treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 2.7453%, while interest-sensitive treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 1.9506%. ⑶ The market generally believes that Thursday's top-expected U.S. producer price data sparked new inflation concerns and prompted traders to reduce their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut. ⑷This trend continued until Friday, but as the market was calm as the summer trading period was slow, European stocks rose slightly, and the euro rose against the weak dollar. ⑸ Italy's 10-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.56%, causing the spread of 10-year government bonds between Italy and Germany to tighten to 70.2 basis points, the narrowest since 2011. ⑹The market is awaiting data such as U.S. retail sales, import prices and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index released later today, which will provide clues to the status of U.S. consumers.

Slow inflation and trade truce are double positive, with global stock market funds surging

⑴ In the week ending August 13, global stock funds inflows hit a six-week high, with net funds absorbed US$19.32 billion, successfully reversing the net outflow trend of US$7.63 billion in the previous week. ⑵This shift was mainly boosted by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data and the double positive for easing trade situations. ⑶ From a regional perspective, US stock funds led the way, attracting net inflows of US$8.77 billion; European and Asian stock funds also received net investments of US$7.08 billion and US$2.07 billion respectively. ⑷ At the industry level, technology stock funds performed particularly strongly, attracting US$4.08 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow since February 2021. ⑸ Bond funds also remained hot, receiving net inflows for the 17th consecutive week, with a total of US$15.87 billion, of which short-term bond funds attracted US$4.42 billion, the second highest in 16 weeks.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1690, an increase of 0.36%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the euro-dollar rose at its intraday level in the latest trading after relying on EMA50 support, while testing support from a bull channel moving within the intraday level range, a technical tilt that shows the strength of the current support level and paves the way for more aggressive trading in the recent period.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3557, an increase of 0.20%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price rose on the last trading day after yesterday's decline, as key resistance stabilized at 1.3590, trying to gain positive momentum may help break through this resistance, relying on the short termThe bullish correction bias, which leads to (RSI) reaching oversold levels, is exaggerated xmh100.compared to the price trend, indicating that a positive divergence is beginning to form, which may drive the price to achieve more gains as the positive pressure on its trading above the EMA50 will continue to exist.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3339.04, an increase of 0.11%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (gold) settled in its last intraday trading, after breaking through a small bullish trend line on a short-term basis, strengthening the selling pressure, and its trading continued to fall below the EMA50, creating obstacles to any recovery attempts in the previous period, confirming weaknesses that dominate the positive momentum.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 37.776, a drop of 0.57%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price fell in the last trade at the intraday level, which was affected by breaking a bull trend line on the short-term basis, surpassing the EMA50 support, creating more negative pressure on the price. On the other hand, we noticed that (RSI) showed positive signals after reaching oversold levels, indicating that a positive divergence began to form from there, providing positive momentum that would help its recovery if its current support was stable.

Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 63.590, a drop of 0.53%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (crude oil) price fell in the last intraday trading. After reaching the overbought level, it formed a negative divergence on the (RSI). The negative pressure on its trading below the EMA50 continued, and the short-term bearish trend dominated, strengthening the bearish scenario.

4. Institutional View

Morgan Stanley: Bullish Apple's stock price says the xmh100.company's fundamentals are turning around

⑴Morgan Stanley's latest report pointed out that Apple's stock price has continued to rise recently and there is still room for upward in the future. ⑵Analyst Eric? "We are becoming more optimistic and believe that Apple may be about to turn around." ⑶ Report emphasizes that iPhone sales are showing a positive trend and are optimistic about the pricing power of Apple products. ⑷Morgan Stanley believes: "The peak period of tariff risks has passed, and the impact of regulatory factors on short-term performance is lower than market expectations."

French Agricultural Loans: Japan's economy may shrink in the third quarter.Rate hikes are expected to be postponed to 2026

⑴ Credit Bank of France expects that Japanese xmh100.companies will be cautious in capital expenditures due to US tariffs and concerns about global economic slowdown, and GDP may shrink month-on-month in the third quarter. High temperatures in summer will also curb the recovery of consumption. ⑵Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates as early as January 2026, provided that the global economy stabilizes and Japan's real GDP resumes positive growth in the fourth quarter. The central bank needs to confirm that the policy effect is sufficient to support the sustained economic recovery before taking action.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The trend of the treasury bond yields in multiple countries, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on August 15". It was carefully xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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