U.S. oil is expected to test $60 per barrel, Fed's interest rate cuts in September, gold price gains are limited, Ukraine faces key choices for "peace agreement"

Basic news

On Monday (August 18, Beijing time), spot gold remained stable around $3,333/ounce, and inflation data was higher than expected, prompting the market to cut bets for interest rate cuts. At the same time, the geopolitical situation in the United States and Russia eased, limiting the rise in gold prices; US crude oil trading was around $61.78/barrel. Last Friday, Trump and Putin's meeting did not reach an agreement, but performed positively. Zelensky led European leaders to meet Trump at the White House, and investors focused on Ukraine facing the key choice of a "peace agreement".

The data during the day is light, focusing on the Ukrainian conflict. According to the President of the European xmh100.commission von der Leyen, she will accompany Zelens with several European leaders on Monday to hold multilateral talks with US President Trump at the White House on Monday, people familiar with the matter said that during the 90-minute call on Saturday, Trump informed Zelensky about the details of the Alaska talks with Putin, emphasizing the realistic position of "Russia is a powerful country." Merezko, chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament's Foreign Affairs xmh100.committee, warned that the peace plan advocated by the United States may include "dangerous clauses" such as NATO membership restrictions, which may trigger a domestic political earthquake in Ukraine. The meeting is also the first time Zelensky has returned to Washington since the "Oval Office dispute" in February this year, and his team is trying to avoid the diplomatic scene from getting out of control again.

Stock Market

The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher last Friday and hit an intraday record high. United Health Group jumped after Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake. However, other U.S. stock ownersStock indexes are about to fall, mixed data make the Fed's next monetary policy action unclear.

The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin has also attracted much attention. The market expects that this meeting will pave the way for resolving the Ukrainian conflict and determine the prospects for crude oil prices.

United Health Group rose nearly 12%, the largest single-day percentage increase since March 2020, after Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed new investments in the health insurance xmh100.company, and Bury's Scion Asset Management is also more optimistic about the xmh100.company. The overall healthcare industry has seen rising costs and the United Health Group plummet by about 40% this year, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to underperform other indexes that have repeatedly hit new highs. The last time the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high was on December 4 last year.

The health care sector rose 1.65% last Friday, marking its best single-week performance since October 2022.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.08% last Friday to 44,946.12 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.29% to 6449.80 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.40% to 21,622.98 points. The weekly line of major U.S. stock indexes rose for the second consecutive week, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and restart a monetary policy easing cycle.

The last time the Federal Reserve lowered its borrowing costs was in December last year. The Fed said U.S. tariffs could intensify price pressures. However, the recent weakness in the labor market and the signs that tariff-induced inflation has not been reflected in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI), giving investors confidence that they may take dovish action next month.

Joe Saluzzi, co-head of stock trading at ThemisTrading, said: "The question is, has the tariffs affected xmh100.commodity prices? It seems not yet." He also said that while the market has basically digested expectations of a rate cut in September, investors may have overlooked risks, and low volatility and high valuations suggest a xmh100.complacent sentiment.

Economic data are mixed. Retail sales grew as expected in July, but consumer confidence and factory production data suggest that tariffs are having an impact on other areas of the economy. Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby is also cautious.

Applied Materials plummeted 14%, and the chip equipment maker released a poor fourth-quarter forecast. Bank of America, the second largest bank in the United States, fell 1.6%, after Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake by 4.2% to 605.3 million shares, and the xmh100.company still holds about 8% of Bank of America.

Intel rose 2.9% after reports that the Trump administration is in talks about the possible U.S. government stake in the chipmaker. Gold prices fell last week as inflation data higher than expected prompted markets to cut bets on interest rate cuts while turning their focus to talks held by U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska. Spot gold was basically flat at $3336.66 per ounce.It fell 1.8% last week. The settlement price of US gold futures remained basically the same as US$3382.6.

Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index (PPI) hit its biggest gain in three years. Traders expect the possibility of the Fed's 25 basis points cut rate in September is 89.1%, down from about 95% before the data was released. After the data was released, non-yield gold fell, and spot gold closed down 0.6%. "Although gold prices stabilized last Friday, there may still be more pressure next, depending on the outcome of the Trump and Putin's Alaska summit."

Geopolitical uncertainty and low interest rates often stimulate demand for gold. U.S. President Trump said at a joint press conference with Russian President Putin that the two sides have made great progress and reached an agreement on many issues, with few remaining issues to be solved, but one of them is very important and the two sides have not reached any agreement. He will call Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO leaders and some people he thinks are appropriate to inform the meeting. Trump said he hopes that the United States and Russia can have a good and fruitful meeting in the future and is expected to meet again with Putin soon. Putin said the next meeting may be in Moscow.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $37.96 an ounce, down 1% last week. Platinum fell 1.5% to $1,336.80 an ounce. Palladium fell 2.6% to $1,116.52 per ounce. Oil market

Oil prices closed down nearly $1 last Friday, as traders assessed talks between U.S. President Trump and Russian leader Putin, which could lead to easing sanctions imposed on Moscow over the Ukrainian conflict.

Bulunte crude oil futures closed down 1.5% at $65.85 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures closed down 1.8% at $62.80.

U.S. President Trump said at a joint press conference with Russian President Putin last Friday that the two sides have made great progress and reached an agreement on many issues. There are few left to be solved, but one of them is important and the two sides have not reached any agreement. He will call Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO leaders and some people he thinks are appropriate to inform the meeting. Trump said he hopes that the United States and Russia can have a good and fruitful meeting in the future and is expected to meet again with Putin soon. Putin said the next meeting may be in Moscow. After meeting with Russian President Putin, U.S. President Trump told Fox News that he would give the meeting 10 points (out of 10 points).

BOKFinancial senior vice president of trading Dennis Kissler said that if a ceasefire was announced, it would be a negative for crude oil in the short term.

Last week, U.S. crude oil fell 1.7%, while Bulunte crude oil fell 1.1%. Meanwhile, weak economic numbersIt has raised concerns about fuel demand.

Bank of America analysts said Thursday they expanded their forecast for oil market surplus, citing rising supply from the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries, xmh100.composed of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell last Friday, with data released last week keeping expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, while traders are waiting for U.S. President Trump and Russian leader Putin to hold talks on Ukraine in Alaska.

The U.S. dollar jumped last Thursday as data showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in July, but gave up most of the gains on Friday, with the dollar falling 0.4% against a basket of currencies last week.

The PPI data is shocking, but there is still no specific evidence that tariffs will cause inflation to surge, and the focus is now shifting to Alaska as the market's bet on a September rate cut, which retook the gains earlier on Friday, said Kyle Chapman, a foreign exchange analyst at Ballinger & Co., London.

According to CMEFedWatch data, the money market reflects a 93% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

The basic forecast of most economists surveyed by Reuters remains that the Fed cut rate in September, the first rate cut this year, followed by another rate cut by the end of the year, as there are growing concerns about the health of the world's largest economy.

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby said last Friday that the latest report this week showed rising inflation in the service sector, which made him feel "unset" because he believes tariffs have had a shock similar to "stagflation" on the economy. Last Friday, investors were also paying attention to whether the Trump and Putin summits made any progress on the issue of a ceasefire in Ukraine, and although no agreement was reached, market sentiment was optimistic.

Most analysts expect the euro to benefit from any ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. The euro rose 0.5% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1702.

The data from Friday showed that the U.S. import prices rebounded in July, and the U.S. dollar was barely supported by rising consumer goods costs. In addition, U.S. retail sales grew steadily in July, boosted by strong car demand and promotions from Amazon and Walmart.

The market is still waiting for this week's Jackson Hall seminar to provide clues to the Fed's next move. Signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, xmh100.combined with any inflation caused by trade tariffs, could put the Fed's interest rate cut trajectory in a dilemma.

The dollar fell 0.4% against the yen to 147.23 yen, after the previously released data on economic growth in Japan was surprisingly strong, showing that exports remained well under the influence of new U.S. tariffs.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent said earlier last week that the Bank of Japan may "lag" in dealing with inflation risks, a remark that was another boost to the strengthening of the yen last week.

The pound rose against the weaker dollar last Friday, after optimistic economic data and a hawkish rate cut by the Bank of England. The pound rose 0.2% to $1.35,520 in late trading, with an increase of 0.7% last week.

International News

Putin and Trump did not reach an agreement

U.S. President Trump said at a joint press conference with Russian President Putin that the two sides have made great progress and reached an agreement on many issues. There are few left to be solved, but one of them is very important and the two sides have not reached any agreement. He will call Ukrainian President Zelensky and NATO leaders and some people he thinks are appropriate to inform the meeting. Trump said he hopes that the United States and Russia can have a good and fruitful meeting in the future and is expected to meet again with Putin soon. Putin said the next meeting may be in Moscow.

Russian Ambassador to the United States: Russia and the United States will further consult on the normalization of relations in the near future

On the 15th local time, Russian Ambassador to the United States Darchiev said that documents on restoring air traffic between Russia and the United States are ready and submitted to the United States for deliberation. Darchiev revealed that Russia and the United States are expected to hold the next round of consultations on tensions in bilateral relations and the normalization of relations in the near future, and hope that specific discussions can be held at that time. After the meeting between the two heads of state, Dmitryev, president of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said that the two sides had a positive and constructive dialogue. He stressed that it is crucial for the US president to note that Moscow and Washington have important cooperation potential in the economic field.

Japan will approve the first stablecoin denominated in yen JPYC

According to Nikkei News, the Japan Financial Services Agency will approve the country's first issuance of the stablecoin denominated in yen this month. The Japan Financial Services Agency will register the fintech xmh100.company JPYCInc. as a remittance business xmh100.company and it is expected to start selling within a few weeks after registration. The digital currency will be backed by liquid assets such as government bonds to keep its value stable at 1JPYC=1 yen.

The Israeli army will review the plan to occupy Gaza City within a few weeks or conduct military exercises in Gaza City

The Israeli Army Radio reported on the morning of the 17th local time that Israeli Chief of Staff Zamir will hold a meeting on the same day to review the military's overall plan to occupy Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli Army Radio also quoted sources as saying that the Israeli army will conduct military exercises in Gaza City within weeks, and the Israeli army will require some troops to evacuate from some stations in southern Gaza to vacate relevant areas to accommodate refugees who have moved out of Gaza City. Previously, the Israeli government had instructed the Israel Defense Force to launch a military offensive against Gaza City, and the military then began to carry out military operations in the Zain xmh100.community on the outskirts of Gaza City.

Europe considers making Trump's preferred xmh100.communication partner go to Washington with Zelensky

U.S. President Trump faced Russian President Putin last FridayThe closeness of European leaders was worried that Ukrainian President Zelensky would not be treated equally friendly. To this end, they are taking action to increase opportunities in Kiev. According to two European diplomats and a person familiar with the matter, the plan is being advanced, intending to make one of Trump's preferred xmh100.communication objects, Finnish President Stub, traveled with Zelensky when he went to Washington to meet Trump on Monday. The purpose is that Stubb can help prevent any friction between Trump and Zelensky and convince the US president to involve Europe in any subsequent negotiations. A person familiar with the matter said, NATO Secretary-General Mark? Rutt – who has a close relationship with Trump – may also travel to Washington. Trump said he would first meet with Zelensky on Monday and then consider having Putin and Zelensky hold tripartite talks.

Indian media: The United States canceled trade negotiations originally scheduled to be held with India in August

Indian business and financial news network NDTVProfit quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that U.S. trade negotiators canceled the itinerary for the meeting to xmh100.come to India from the 25th to the 29th of this month, resulting in the hopes of the two countries reaching an agreement before the deadline of this month 27th. According to Reuters, the authenticity of the report is currently not confirmed. The two countries' representatives had five rounds of negotiations, but the negotiations broke through after India refused to open up the agricultural and dairy markets and stopped buying Russian oil.

Domestic News

This year's National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are free for 8 days. The expressway will be free from October 1st to 8th. According to the notice of the General Office of the State Council on the arrangements for some holidays in 2025, the next round of holidays this year is the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. The National Day meets the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the xmh100.combined holidays are for 8 days. The holiday will be adjusted from October 1st (Wednesday) to 8th (Wednesday), for a total of 8 days, and will go to work on September 28th (Sunday) and October 11th (Saturday). In addition, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are free of charge. According to the "Notice on Approval and Upgrade the Implementation Plan for the Exemption of Small Passenger Car Tolls on Major Holidays of the Ministry of Transport and other departments" (Guofa [2012] No. 37), the time range for free passage of toll roads is four national statutory holidays, including the Spring Festival, Qingming Festival, Labor Day, and National Day. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, small passenger bus tolls will be exempted from 0:00 on October 1 to 24:00 on October 8. All toll roads (including airport expressways, toll bridges and tunnels) will be exempted from small passenger bus tolls. From 0:00 on October 9, normal charges will resume.

The first 100-meter "flying man" in the history of humanoid robots was born

The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games is being held at the National Speed Skating Hall. In the just-concluded 100-meter "Flying Man War", the "Embroidered Tiangong Ultra" robot of Beijing Tiangong Team won the world's first 100-meter sprint championship in the 100-meter sprint event with a time of 21.50 seconds. The robot was developed by the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center and is the only one in the World Humanoid Robot Games. It uses a fully autonomous navigation system.Players running in the field without manual remote control.

Chan Mo-po: The plan for the development of the Hong Kong International Gold Trading Center will be announced within the year

Chan Mo-po, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, said today (17th) that last year's policy report proposed to build a xmh100.commodity trading ecosystem, and related work is progressing steadily. The SAR government has set up a special task force to examine various areas related to gold and financial transactions, promote Hong Kong's development into an international gold trading center, including supporting the gold delivery of entities, and will announce the relevant plans within the year.

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