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market analysis
With the arrival of US retail data, can the US dollar counterattack again?
Wonderful Introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: US retail data is xmh100.coming, can the US dollar counterattack again?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (August 15), the US dollar index (DXY) continued to oscillate in the downward channel. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) was stronger than expected on Thursday, driving the dollar's short-term rebound, but soon encountered top pressure, reaching a high of 98.32, and gave up almost all gains on Friday, returning to below 98.00. Market sentiment is affected by the Russian-US summit, and traders have hope for the improvement of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, pushing the euro up, thus putting downward pressure on the US dollar.
The US PPI data hit the largest increase in three years, indicating that tariffs have had an impact on prices, partially alleviating the previous interest rate cuts caused by the milder Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, and the US dollar rose in the short term. However, as the market digests PPI data, traders realize that the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in September are still strong, and more than 90% of the market expect that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, which once again increases the downward pressure on the dollar.
Today's focus data will be U.S. retail sales and consumer inflation expectations at the University of Michigan, which will further reveal the impact of tariffs on consumer spending and may also affect the future trend of the US dollar.
Brands
According to the latest data, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9%, the largest increase in three years. This data shows that due to the impact of tariffs, American xmh100.companies have gradually passed on cost pressure to consumers. This provides clues to the market about the future direction of inflation and also has an impact on the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although the market expects the Fed to drop in Septemberbut the data strengthens market expectations that the Fed will adopt a more cautious monetary policy.
In addition, U.S. retail sales data will be released today, which will reveal how tariffs affect consumer spending and further affect market expectations for the economic outlook. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations at the University of Michigan may also provide new clues to the market.
Technical:
Judging from the chart of the US dollar index (DXY), the current price is still in the downward channel. The Bollinger Band shows that the price has touched the upper track around 98.66 in the early stage and encountered a strong pullback. The current price has fallen back below 98.00 again. As the price gradually approaches the lower track 97.60 area, the market is full of doubts about the support of this position.
The Bollinger Bands show that the current volatility has intensified. Although the price rebounded in a short term earlier, it failed to break through the upper track, which implies that the market is still under pressure. The RSI index shows that the market is currently under the oversold area and has not rebounded effectively, further confirming the existence of downward pressure.
From the graphical structure, if the US dollar index fails to break through the resistance above 98.32 in the short term, it will continue to maintain the trend of oscillating and pullback. The support level is concentrated around 97.60. Once it falls below this area, it may further increase the downward risk and test the 97.00 mark.
Prevention of Market Sentiment:
Current market sentiment shows a certain risk preference. Amid expectations of the meeting between Trump and Putin, the market has hope for the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, which has driven the euro to rise and put pressure on the dollar. Although the US PPI data is relatively strong, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut have not changed, and the market's short sentiment still dominates.
Trader sentiment is affected by multiple factors in the short term, including U.S. economic data, geopolitical risks and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Future Outlook:
Bules Outlook: If the US dollar can break through the resistance range of 98.32, it may usher in a short-term rebound. The rebound above the support level will give the market a short-term bullish opportunity, but the pressure to break through the upward trend is still high.
Back prospects: At present, the US dollar is still in the downward channel, and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September still exists. Coupled with the disturbance of geopolitical risks, whether the US dollar's support level near 97.60 determines whether the bears can further lower the price to 97.00 or even lower. If it falls below 97.60 support, the US dollar may enter a deeper correction range.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Official Website]: US retail data is xmh100.coming, can the US dollar counterattack again?". It is carefully xmh100.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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