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There is internal strife in the Japanese government, internal divisions in the central bank, and the final trial of longs and shorts is tonight

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: Internal strife in the Japanese government, internal divisions in the central bank, and the final judgment of long and short is tonight." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (October 29), the U.S. dollar against the yen fluctuated widely after falling on Tuesday, and is currently trading around 152.17. The market is increasingly divided before the U.S. and Japanese central banks are about to announce interest rate decisions. USD/JPY has retraced sharply after hitting a one-week high this week. Concerns about U.S. intervention and expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan may limit the space for further depreciation of the yen. Traders may wait for the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan to be implemented before making directional trading arrangements.

High market trading encountered U.S. political intervention, and the exchange rate fluctuated widely

With the rise of high market Sanae, the financial market quickly formed a new trading logic - "high market trading." At its core is the expectation that the new government will restart a xmh100.combination of large-scale fiscal stimulus and ultra-loose monetary policy, which is seen as a continuation of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics."

Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has launched a radical fiscal spending plan, and the market expects that the Bank of Japan may postpone tightening monetary policy as soon as possible, which has recently restricted the space for any substantial appreciation of the yen. In addition, the rising optimism about Sino-US trade has become another factor that weakens the demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen. The market has adjusted its positions before the key US Federal Open Market xmh100.committee (FOMC) decision, and has experienced wide fluctuations.

In addition, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's supportive remarks, coupled with market expectations for an upcoming interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, will help limit the downside of the yen.

In addition, the high-profile meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may lead toThe yen provided a boost.

Traders may also choose to wait for the Federal Open Market xmh100.committee (FOMC) to announce the results of its interest rate meeting in the early hours of Wednesday morning - followed by the Bank of Japan's latest monetary policy decision on Thursday.

Japan’s official statement stated that the appreciation will limit the continued depreciation of the yen

Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Toshimitsu Kiuchi’s statement on Tuesday once again triggered market concerns that the Japanese government may intervene to curb further weakening of the yen.

This also exposed potential differences within the Japanese government on exchange rate issues. The Prime Minister's Office may prefer a weaker yen to boost export corporate profits and overall economic growth, thereby gaining political support for business. However, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) is more concerned about exchange rate stability and import costs.

The weaker yen has pushed up the price of imported energy and food, exacerbating inflationary pressures, which is highly unpopular among ordinary people, especially as inflation is already above the central bank's target. The Ministry of Finance's verbal intervention is symptomatic of this internal tension, placing limits on USD/JPY's upside amid the threat of actual FX intervention.

The Federal Reserve under economic resilience and lack of data

In recent weeks, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has continued to be lower than market expectations. For example, the number of initial jobless claims in the third week of September was 218,000, significantly lower than the market consensus of 235,000 and hitting a two-month low.

He emphasized that the strong economy and labor market give the Federal Reserve "room for prudent policy" when determining the future path of interest rates. This means that the Fed is in no rush to start a rate-cutting cycle until clear and sustained signs of economic weakness emerge.

Ironically, even if there is no obvious deterioration in U.S. data, there is still no shortage of dovish xmh100.comments within the Federal Reserve. The CPI is lower than expected, but the breakdown shows that U.S. inflation has not slowed down, which proves that the data does not support interest rate cuts. However, it seems that if the Fed stands still, it may trigger investor panic, causing the stock market to plummet and Treasury yields to soar - and may even trigger the financial crisis that the Fed was originally trying to avoid.

Poll reveals the timing of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike: economists' expectations and policy direction

Although Takaichi Sanae is inclined to loose policy, economists believe that the Bank of Japan will maintain policy independence. A survey said that despite Sanae Takaichi's victory in the election, two-thirds of economists still believe that the Bank of Japan will not delay raising interest rates. The survey also disclosed the following key conclusions:

Of the 75 economists who participated in the survey, 45 (60%) expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, bringing interest rates to 0.75%; 6 of the 67 economists surveyed Four (accounting for 96%) predict that borrowing costs will rise to at least 0.75% by March 2026; among the 35 economists specifically interviewed, 46% support an interest rate increase in January, 31% prefer an interest rate increase in December, and only 14% believe that October is a suitable month to adjust interest rates.

Current MarketIt is expected that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This difference in monetary policy is expected to narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, thereby supporting the Japanese yen.

Disagreements within the Bank of Japan

As the political landscape changes, policy debates within the Bank of Japan have become increasingly public. Differences among members on the future path of monetary policy have become increasingly apparent. The core of the debate focuses on how to interpret the current inflation data and the appropriate time for policy normalization.

The core figure in the hawk camp is xmh100.committee member Hajime Takata. On October 20, he once again publicly called for an interest rate increase, saying that "this is an excellent window period to raise policy interest rates" and emphasized that Japan was approaching the price stability target. This clear hawkish stance directly challenges the dovish tendency of the new government, and also reflects the concerns of some policymakers within the central bank about the persistence of inflation.

In contrast, the cautious faction headed by Governor Kazuo Ueda advocates a more prudent strategy.

Governor Ueda has repeatedly emphasized that whether to raise interest rates in October depends entirely on the performance of subsequent economic data and whether his confidence in the realization of inflation and growth expectations increases. As Japan's core consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in September, higher than 2.7% last month, expectations for a short-term interest rate hike have continued.

Deputy Governor Seiichi Shimizu also expressed a similar view. He pointed out that given that Japan has been in a low or even zero interest rate environment for a long time, there is great "uncertainty" in the market feedback that may be triggered by the normalization of monetary policy.

Technical analysis:

This week, the US dollar against the yen encountered resistance and fell near the 153.25-153.30 range (i.e., the intersection of the monthly high and the upper track of the ascending channel). This is initially building a double top pattern on the daily chart, which is a bearish pattern.

Nevertheless, the oscillator on the daily chart is still in the positive range, which means that if the exchange rate falls further, it may find support near the 150.70-151.10 range. However, if the exchange rate clearly falls below the 151.00 mark, it is expected to further test the psychological mark of 150.00, during which there may be initial support near the 150.45 range.

On the other hand, if the exchange rate breaks through the high point of the Asia-European period (about 152.54 range) and achieves a substantial recovery, it is likely to attract new funds to enter the market, and the increase may be limited around the 152.90-153.00 range. If the exchange rate continues to be driven by buying after breaking through this range, and then breaks through the 153.25-153.30 range, it will be regarded as a new round of breakthroughs, and the USD/JPY is expected to regain the 154.00 mark. At that time, the rally may continue further and advance towards the next key resistance level near the middle of the 154.00 range, and then may challenge the 154.75-154.80 range and the 155.00 psychological mark.

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