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CATEGORIES
News
- US dollar index lowers under pressure, Milan "probably" taking office before the
- Weak employment data and political tensions drag the dollar down
- 8.25 Gold bottomed out and rebounded, breaking the balance, and continue to buy
- Eurozone bond market is changing abnormally, analysis of short-term trends of sp
- Bearish pressure intensifies after the US dollar index falls below the 50-day mo
market news
Why did gold bears retreat after the Federal Reserve’s “hawkish interest rate cut”?
Wonderful introduction:
One person’s happiness may be fake, but the happiness of a group of people can no longer distinguish between true and false. They squandered their youth to their heart's content, wishing they could burn it all away. Their posture was like a carnival before the end of the world.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: Why did gold shorts retreat urgently after the Federal Reserve's "hawkish interest rate cut"?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
During the Asia-Europe period on Thursday (October 30), spot gold briefly hit the bottom and then rebounded. It once fell to -0.37% during the session and is currently up more than 1.5%, trading around US$4,007. Driven by the slight decline in the US dollar index and the rebound in hedging demand, gold prices have regained upward momentum. The high-level meeting between China and the United States in Busan became a node for profit-taking for gold shorts.
The U.S. Central Bank announced on Wednesday that it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. This is the second interest rate cut this year. The resolution was opposed by two policymakers, with Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Millan advocating for a deeper rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid favored maintaining interest rates at current levels due to concerns about inflation.
The U.S. central bank also stated that it will stop reducing the size of its balance sheet as early as December, marking the official end of its quantitative tightening program. But at the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell clearly dismissed market expectations for another rate cut in December.
Powell acknowledged that xmh100.committee members have observed risks to the job market, but also noted that there is uncertainty about further adjustments to interest rates without a full grasp of economic fundamentals. This stance could curb aggressive bets by dollar shorts and limit meaningful gains in the value of gold, a non-interest-bearing asset.
This article summarizes recent developments.
The Fed's hawkish interest rate cut, coupled with the withdrawal of QT, presents an overall loose tone
The Fed's dovish interest rate cut but announced that it will end QT (quantitative tightening) still presents a loose context. Although the Fed's statement weakening the December interest rate cut has suppressed the price of gold, the mention of the possible start of QE in the Fed's remarks alsoThis leaves room for upward speculation in gold prices. After all, QE will release liquidity, which may weaken the dollar and increase inflation.
However, if there is a dovish shift in U.S. data and Fed officials' attitudes later, it will support gold prices. Traders are currently focusing on the speeches of core members of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market xmh100.committee (FOMC) to capture key clues to drive the market.
After the high-level meeting, gold shorts concentrated on cashing in
After the Sino-US meeting, the US President said that soybean and rare earth-related issues have been resolved, and the market's concerns about trade have subsided, causing some gold shorts to choose to take profits, and gold rebounded.
The market's positive outcome expectations for the high-level meeting between China and the United States suppressed the safe-haven buying of gold. However, as the meeting ended, gold shorts took profits while safe-haven buying increased. Therefore, it is safer to wait for a strong follow-up buying signal before confirming that the recent sharp correction that started after hitting a record high earlier this month has ended and planning for further upward movement.
The U.S. government shutdown continues, and gold safe-haven buying returns
The U.S. Congress is deadlocked on the appropriation bill supported by the Republican Party. The government shutdown has entered its fourth week, causing market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. This factor pushed the dollar back from its volatile highs after the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting and boosted safe-haven demand for gold during the Asian session on Thursday.
Traders are currently looking forward to speeches by several FOMC core members later in the North American session for more clues on the path of future interest rate cuts. This policy outlook will play a key role in affecting the short-term price trend of the U.S. dollar and provide a directional boost for the gold-dollar exchange rate.
Technical analysis:
It can be seen from the four-hour chart of spot gold that spot gold began to rebound after the second bottom in early trading without breaking the previous low. If the gold price can hold 4000 points, it is expected to break out of the double bottom pattern. If it breaks through the double bottom pattern, the gold price will have the opportunity to launch an attack on the 4150 heavy holding area.
3962 is the latest support. If it is not supported, the gold price will most likely retest the previous low of 3886, followed by the 50% Fibonacci support level of 3750.
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