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The U.S. dollar index hovers below the 100 mark, and the U.S. military will block maritime traffic at Iranian ports
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The U.S. dollar index is hovering below the 100 mark, and the US military will block maritime traffic at Iranian ports." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
In the Asian market on Monday, April 13, spot gold opened down more than 2% and traded around $4,652 per ounce. Previously, negotiations between the United States and Iran on Saturday failed to reach any agreement, mainly due to setbacks on the three major sticking points of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, enriching uranium, and unfreezing Iran's overseas assets. After the negotiations broke down, the two sides became tougher again. The United States announced that it would block Iranian ports starting on the 13th. At the same time, former President Trump said that he was considering launching a limited military strike against Iran. Renewed geopolitical tensions have weakened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in April is 98.4%.
U.S. crude oil prices opened sharply higher, up about 8%, and once stood above US$105.50 per barrel. They are currently trading near US$104.60, and may test whether they can stabilize the US$105 mark during the day.
The U.S. dollar index fell on Friday, recording its biggest weekly drop since January, as investors unwinded safe-haven positions, betting that oil shipments would resume if a ceasefire in the Gulf region was maintained. The euro was at 1.1730 against the US dollar, up 1.8% last week; the pound against the US dollar was at 1.3470, up 2%; the risk-sensitive Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar were both up nearly 3% against the US dollar last week. Although the ceasefire agreement showed signs of breaking down last Friday, the overall market sentiment had been relatively optimistic.
Data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose the most in the past four years in March, but it was in line with expectations. The market is paying more attention to the outcome of the U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad this weekend. Analysts said any positive progress in the talks would be negative for the dollar, while the opposite could quickly reverse market sentiment. The Japanese yen came under pressure, with USD/JPY rising to 159.255.
Asian Markets
Shin Hyun-song, the nominee for the governor of the Bank of Korea, said that chip exports and additional budgets are offsetting the downward pressure on the economy.
The Central Bank of China launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 5 billion yuan today. Since no reverse repurchase expired today, a net investment of 5 billion yuan was achieved that day.
European Market
The Bank of England plans to discuss the impact of Anthropic’s new artificial intelligence model “Mythos” with financial institutions. British regulators are joining their counterparts in the United States and elsewhere in warning of the risks the tool could pose. The model will be included on the agenda of the Bank of England's next "Cross-Market Operational Resilience Group" and "CMORG Artificial Intelligence Task Force" meetings. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have held emergency meetings on this issue, and the Bank of Canada also held a meeting with banks and financial xmh100.companies last Friday. The meetings reflected growing concerns among regulators that new artificial intelligence-driven cyberattacks are becoming one of the biggest risks facing the financial industry.
U.S. market
The University of Michigan Consumer Survey showed that inflation expectations rose sharply in April, with one-year expectations jumping from 3.8% to 4.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 2025. Long-term expectations also rose to 3.4% from 3.2%, the highest level since November 2025, indicating that inflation concerns are becoming more entrenched.
At the same time, consumer confidence overall has deteriorated significantly. The overall index fell to 47.6 from 53.3, the current conditions index fell to 50.1 from 55.8, and the expectations index fell to 46.1 from 51.7.
Survey director Xu Yuan pointed out that many respondents blamed the Iran conflict on deteriorating economic conditions, especially rising energy prices. However, most interviews were conducted before the ceasefire was announced on April 7, and sentiment may improve if supply disruptions ease and gasoline prices fall.
Inflation in the United States surged significantly in March, with CPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month, and year-on-year growth rising from 2.4% to 3.3%. While significant, both figures were slightly below expectations of 1.0% and 3.4%, indicating that the surge in prices, driven primarily by energy, had been largely anticipated.
The increase was mainly driven by energy costs. Energy prices rose 10.9% month-on-month, with gasoline rising 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the monthly CPI growth.
In contrast, underlying inflationary pressures were relatively controlled, with core CPI rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year from 2.5%, both below expectations of 0.3% and 2.7%.
Other sub-categories performed more stably. Housing costs rose 0.3% month-on-month, continuing their slow rise, while food prices were flat this month. Overall, the data reinforce the view that the surge in inflation was largely energy-driven, with limited evidence on broad second-round effects.
Canadian employment increased by 14,100 in March, slightly higher than the expected 12,600, achieving a slight rebound after a cumulative decline of 109,000 at the beginning of the year. Despite the overall growth, full-time and part-time employment changed little, suggesting underlying momentum remains limited.
Labor market conditions are generally stable. The unemployment rate remained at 6.7%, below expectations of 6.8%. The employment rate remained unchanged at 60.6%. The labor force participation rate also held steady at 64.9%, suggesting that the stabilization in the unemployment rate reflects in part a lack of new entrants to the labor market rather than a strong pickup in hiring.
However, wage growth accelerated significantly. Average hourly wages increased 4.7% year-on-year, up from 3.9% in February and marking the fastest growth since October 2024. After adjusting for xmh100.compositional effects, wage growth was more modest at 3.6%. The xmh100.combination of moderate employment growth and solid wage increases presents a xmh100.complicated situation. Although it brings some relief after the weakness at the beginning of the year, it is not enough to herald a significant improvement in the Canadian labor market.
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